Another much-rumored free-agent WR marriage has come to fruition: Keenan Allen has signed with the Colts. Allen has familiarity with Shane Steichen from their time together with the Chargers, and the Colts had a big hole at WR with Alec Pierce still recovering from a March ankle procedure. Let’s break this move down from a fantasy standpoint.
KEENAN ALLEN
- As of last season, Allen was still an incredibly effective target earner. He earned 0.27 targets per route run with a team-leading 21.8% seasonal target share — higher than both Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. He also led the Bears in target share (25.7%) on 0.25 targets per route run in 2024. Allen had the same TPRR as Michael Pittman Jr. in 2024 and significantly outperformed him in that metric last season.
- Unfortunately, while Allen still commands targets per route at a high level, his ability to turn those targets into yards has evaporated as he’s aged; Allen’s combined yards per target from 2024-25 was an awful 6.3, and his yards per reception bottomed out at a career-low 9.6 in 2025. Allen will likely be one of the least efficient WRs in football at turning targets into yards.
- The Chargers also kept him in a part-time role at just 65.8% of routes last season, and that trend likely continues once Alec Pierce is healthy. Allen may begin the season in a fairly significant snaps role (if Pierce misses Week 1) given the Colts’ dearth of WR options after Pierce and Josh Downs, but assuming Pierce can get healthy, he likely settles into a pretty part-time role down the stretch. Of course, he can still be a target vacuum as a part-time player — he had a 22% target share on 66% routes last season! — but it mutes the volume ceiling quite a bit. Allen got a 22% target share last season and still only managed 8.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game.
OTHER COLTS PLAYERS
- We’ll see what happens with Pierce. To this point, the Colts have been publicly optimistic that their $114 million wide receiver will be available in Week 1. However, he’s still on the PUP list nearly a month into training camp after a March surgery with a 4-6 month return timeline, and they just decided to bring in a big-name free-agent WR. The Allen signing doesn’t necessarily mean Pierce won’t play in Week 1 (Indy’s WR3 before this signing was career special teamer Ashton Dulin, so they needed a receiver either way), but it’s definitely not what you want to see on the Pierce front. This also hurts Pierce’s chances of running more short/intermediate routes once healthy: When the rest of your WR room is Allen (8.3-yard aDOT in 2025), Downs (7.5), and Tyler Warren (5.4), someone else has to run the deep routes. Pierce is among the best in football at that, and while the Colts have claimed he will expand his route tree fresh off the new contract, they desperately need his field-stretching abilities, given the state of their receiving corps.
- Downs has reportedly had an impressive offseason and earned the right to play on the outside in 2026. We’ll see whether that plan changes with Allen in town — 64.7% of Allen’s snaps last year were on the outside — but recent buzz from Indianapolis has pointed toward Downs getting a real shot as a full-time player on the outside (and moving inside in 3-WR sets). If Pierce misses time, Downs is assured an outside starting spot to begin the season, and Allen likely slides back into a part-time role once Pierce is healthy unless the Downs-on-the-outside experiment somehow goes horribly wrong. Adding significant target competition to the fold certainly hurts Downs, but we’re assuming Downs is clearly ahead of Allen in target share at this point despite the insane target shares from Allen in recent seasons.
- Like Downs, Warren is expected to step into a bigger role this season. Warren remains one of the alphas in this offense, but adding another underneath target like Allen (Warren had a 5.4-yard aDOT last year; Allen’s was 8.3) hurts. Still, Warren will be a huge factor in this offense, and he remains the clear TE4 in fantasy drafts.
- This is possibly/likely a reflection of Pierce’s current health status, but it’s also a reflection of how Indianapolis feels about the depth of its wide receiver corps. Training camp reports from Indianapolis indicated that none of Dulin, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Laquon Treadwell have impressed so far, and things have been radio silent on seventh-rounder Deion Burks. Allen should easily win WR3 duties (WR2 to begin the year, assuming Pierce misses time), and Dulin/NWI will fight for scraps behind him.
